The Should We Train? Decision Tree, Explained
One question decides whether a performance gap needs learning: could people do it now, under ideal conditions? Here is how to apply it.
The one question the tree asks
Could the person perform the task to the required standard right now, under ideal conditions: the right tools, enough time, no distractions and a clear understanding of what is wanted? This tests capability, not everyday behaviour. The best way to answer it is to ask people to show you.
The decision tree is adapted from Robert Mager and Peter Pipe’s performance analysis and extended with the Capability Diagnostic, as set out in Training Isn’t Always the Answer.
If the answer is no: they can’t
There may be a learning need, but don’t book a course yet. First check whether they could ever do it (skill fade), whether what is missing is information that could be provided at the point of need rather than memorised, whether the task could be made simpler, and whether the gap is really one of practice rather than knowledge.
Only a genuine gap that survives those questions is a learning requirement. The next step is a proper Training Needs Analysis to define exactly what is needed and how to build it.
If the answer is yes: they can, but don’t
If people can perform to the standard under ideal conditions but don’t in practice, something in the environment is getting in the way. Do they know it is expected? Do they get feedback? Are tools, processes, time or resources in the way? What are the consequences of doing it properly? What do managers and colleagues do?
The answer on this branch is almost always a non-training intervention: clarifying expectations, providing feedback, removing obstacles, fixing processes and tools, changing incentives, or acting on leadership and culture.
The grey areas
Real groups are rarely tidy. Some people can and some can’t, so the two groups need different responses. Some can in a calm room but not under pressure, which points to practice. Some can’t because of the system, such as missing access or broken equipment, which training will not fix. A brand-new task means nobody can do it yet, which is exactly the moment to check that processes, tools and roles are ready too.
Using the tree without overcomplicating it
The tree is deliberately simple. It is meant to be applied quickly, before budget is committed, and it makes the decision easy to explain to the person who asked for training. Where the answer isn’t obvious, run a fuller diagnosis with the Capability Diagnostic, or start with the Capability Readiness Review.
Common questions on this topic.
Yes, and it is a common finding. Different groups often need different answers: targeted learning for those who can’t, and environmental fixes for those who can but don’t.
Ideally both together — L&D alone may be biased toward finding a training answer, and the business alone may lack the framework to test the alternative explanations systematically.
No. It decides whether a TNA is the right next step at all. Once a genuine learning need is confirmed, the TNA defines what is needed and how to build it.
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